INVEST 94W ၁၂ နာရီမွ ၂၄ နာရီအတြင္း မုန္တိုင္း ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္မည္

ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ပင္လယ္ျပင္ေတာင္ပိုင္းတြင္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလွ်က္ရွိသည့္ INVEST 94W သည္ ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာၿပီး ၿမိဳ႕ေတာ္ မနီလာ၏ အေရွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၇၇ဝ ခန္႕ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ေတာင္ပိုင္း အနီးဆံုးကမ္းေျခမွ မိုင္ ၁၇ဝ ခန္႕ အကြာ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ပင္လယ္ျပင္တြင္ ဗဟိုျပဳေနကာ လြန္ခဲ့သည့္ ၆ နာရီအတြင္း ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၁၅ ေနာ္တီကယ္မိုင္နွဳန္းခန္႕ျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လ်ားခဲ့ေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရပါသည္။။ JTWC ခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္မ်ားတြင္ လာမည့္ ၁၂ နာရီမွ ၂၄ နာရီအတြင္း မုန္တိုင္း ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္ေျခ HIGH အဆင့္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာေၾကာင္း မုန္တိုင္းဗဟိုတြင္ ေလတိုက္ႏွဳန္း 20 knots အထိ ရွိၿပီး ဗဟိုဖိအား 1004 MB အထိ က်ဆင္းလာေနေၾကာင္း ထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါသည္။

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 130.8E TO 8.7N 125.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201841Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 191304Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS, PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

21MAR-00Z

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