ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္ အေနာက္ေတာင္ပိုင္းမွ မုန္တိုင္း NILAM(02B) update

ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္ အေနာက္ေတာင္ပိုင္း၊ အိႏိၵယႏိုင္ငံ တမီလ္နာဒူးျပည္နယ္ ခ်င္းႏိုင္(Chennai)ၿမိဳ႕ အေရွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၂၁၀ ခန္႕၊ သီရိလကၤာႏိုင္ငံ ကိုလံဘိုၿမိဳ႕ေတာ္ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၂၇၀ ခန္႕တြင္ ဗဟိုျပဳေနၿပီး အေနာက္-အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ  ၇ိုင္ႏွဳန္းခန္႕ျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လ်ားခဲ့ေၾကာင္း၊ မူလ ခန္႕မွန္းထားသည့္လမ္းေၾကာင္းမွ ေတာင္ဘက္သို႕ အနည္းငယ္ က်ဆင္းလာေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရပါသည္။ (ပံုတြင္ ၾကည့္ပါ)

02B NILAM
31 Oct 2012 0000Z
Location: 10.3 81.8
Winds: 50 knots
Central Pressure: 985 hPa

  • TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
  • ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS EVIDENCED IN A 301814Z OSCAT PASS.
  • THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS THE INTENSIFICATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  • THE LLCC IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
  • UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RECENT POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABSORBED WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL STR.
  • DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
  • THE TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS.
  • OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD, OPENING THE CPA TO CHENNAI, INDIA. TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36.
  • BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
  • MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 17 FEET.

TSR မွ ထုတ္ျပန္သည့္ ေလျပင္းတိုက္ခတ္ခံရမႈ အေျခအေန သတိေပးခ်က္

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 30 Oct, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NILAM (02B) currently located near 9.4 N 82.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

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