ပစိဖိတ္သမုဒၵရာ အေနာက္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းမွ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း 01W

ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္မွာ ေဖေဖၚဝါရီ ၁၇ ရက္ေန႕က စၿပီး ျဖစ္ေနတဲ့ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း 01W(ONE) ဟာ ဒီေန႕ ေဖေဖၚဝါရီ ၂၁ ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ၀၀၃၀ နာရီ အခ်ိန္မွာ ရရွိတဲ့ NRL data ေတြ အရ ဗီယက္နန္ႏိုင္ငံ ဟိုခ်ီမင္းစီးတီး အေရွ႕-အေရွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၃၃၀ ခန္႕မွာ ဆက္လက္တည္ရွိေနၿပီး လြန္ခဲ့တဲ့ ၆ နာရီအတြင္း ေျမာက္ဘက္ကို တစ္နာရီ  ၅ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းခန္႕နဲ႕ ေရြ႕လ်ားခဲ့ပါတယ္။ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း ONE ကို JTWC က Final Warning ထုတ္လိုက္ၿပီးတဲ့ေနာက္ ပ်က္ျပယ္သြားျခင္း မရွိပဲ ဒီေန႕အထိ ဆက္လက္ တည္ရွိေနတာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

01W ONE – 20 Feb 2012 1800Z
Location: 9.3 111.2
Winds: 20 knots
Central Pressure: 1007 hPa

ဒီေန႕မွာေတာ့ JTWC က 01W ရဲ႕ အႂကြင္းအက်န္ေတြဟာ ျပန္လည္စုဖြဲ႕လာၿပီး ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာကာ မုန္တိုင္း ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္ေျခ အဆင့္ MEDIUM ျဖစ္လာေၾကာင္း ျပန္လည္ တင္ထားၿပီး မုန္တိုင္းျဖစ္လာရင္ ေရြ႕လ်ားႏိုင္တဲ့ လမ္းေၾကာင္း ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခပံုကိုလဲ တင္ထားပါတယ္။ JTWC ရဲ႕ Tropical Summary ကို မူလအတိုင္း ေအာက္မွာ ေဖၚျပေပးထားပါတယ္။

• THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM.
• ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE SPRATLEY ISLANDS.
• THE LLCC HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WELL FORMED CLOUD BANDS ARE SPIRALING IN; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS NEARLY 100 NM SOUTH OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
• THIS CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW.
• THIS FLOW HAS INDUCED FAVORABLE SPIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF SYSTEM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING THE LLCC FROM BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE CONVECTION.
• UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
• AS THE ANTICYCLONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG MONSOONAL NORTHEASTERLIES MOVES AWAY, THE SHEAR MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE LLCC TO FINALLY COUPLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
• HOWEVER, TIME IS RUNNING SHORT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AS THE CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE AREA OF THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE 26-27 DEGREES AND DECREASING TOWARDS THE VIETNAMESE COAST.
• ADDITIONALLY, IF THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF VWS WHICH WOULD ALSO PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
• CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND FILL.
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
• MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LLCC, THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW STRENGTH, AND THE CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THE LLCC TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS MEDIUM.

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