ပစိဖိတ္သမုဒၵရာမွ မုန္တိုင္းေၾကာင့္ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံတြင္ မိုးပိုလာဦးမည္လား

ပစိဖိတ္သမုဒၵရာ အေနာက္ေျမာက္ပိုင္း၊ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ပင္လယ္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းတို႕တြင္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာသည့္ အားေကာင္းေသာ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NANMADOL(14W) – ႏွင့္ TALAS(15W) တို႕၏ အရွိန္ေၾကာင့္ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံအတြက္ မုတ္သုန္မိုးကို ပိုမိုေစသည္ ဟု မွတ္သားရပါသည္။ ထို႕အတူ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ အပါအဝင္ အေရွ႕ေတာင္အာရွႏိုင္ငံမ်ားအတြက္လည္း ကုန္လုနီးနီး မုတ္သုန္ရာသီကို အားပိုေကာင္းေစၿပီး မိုးမ်ားလာေစမည့္ အေျခအေနတစ္ရပ္ကို ျဖစ္ေပၚေစလွ်က္ရွိေနပါသည္။ မိုးရြာသြန္းမႈျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခ Slide Show ကိုၾကည့္ပါရန္။

မုန္တိုင္း ၂ ခု ၏ နီးကပ္မႈေၾကာင့္ Fujiwara Effect ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္သည္ဟုလည္း ခန္႕မွန္းထားၾကပါသည္။

The Tropical Depression which was lingering WNW of Guam has strengthened to Tropical Storm TALAS (15W)…accelerating NNW in the direction of Japan. TALAS is a filipino word for sharpness.  This weekend, TS TALAS is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) located over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon.

Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) still gaining strength while drifting westward across the Philippine Sea…threatens Isabela-Cagayan-Batanes Area. Its western outer rainbands spreading across the Eastern & Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila & Bicol Region.

This weekend, Typhoon NANMADOL is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with the developing cyclone (97W) located to the NW of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines will be minimal. It will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow, bringing scattered to occasional rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.

The Fujiwhara effect or Fujiwara interaction is a type of interaction between two nearby cyclonic vortices, causing them to appear to “orbit” each other.

[slideshow id=17 w=”550″ h=”570″] Slide Show ျဖစ္ပါသည္။ ပံုေပၚတြင္ ကလစ္လုပ္၍ ေနာက္တစ္ပံုကို loading ဆက္ေပးနိုင္ပါသည္။
LEGEND
တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NANMADOL and TALAS တို႕နီးကပ္၍ ျဖစ္ေပၚေနမႈ အေျခအေန
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION NANMADOL

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu August 25 2011
Location of Eye: 16.3º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 323 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 342 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 375 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 409 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 488 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 465 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]

Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Thu Aug 25

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*

NANMADOL (MINA) forecast outlook remains the same, the typhoon is expected to move on a slow NNW track, bringing it a little closer to the east coast of NE Luzon (Cagayan, Isabela incl. Batanes Group). This system will continue to gain strength within the next 2 days due to very favorable atmospheric environment aloft. NANMADOL may likely reach Category 3 status by Friday & Category 4 on Saturday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

THIS EVENING (THU): Strengthens to Category 2 as it moves NNW slowly, well to the east of Northern Aurora…about 323 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora [8PM AUG 25: 16.6N 125.1E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (FRI): Becomes a Major Typhoon (Category 3) as it moves NNW slowly, well to the east of Southern Cagayan…about 318 km East of Tuguegarao City [8AM AUG 26: 17.5N 124.7E @ 195kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Strengthens to Category 4 with no change on its track…about 285 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM AUG 26: 18.5N 124.4E @ 215kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its Category 4 status, starts turning Northward…about 255 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8AM AUG 27: 19.5N 124.2E @ 215kph].

TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001

2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Thu 25 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

1 comment to ပစိဖိတ္သမုဒၵရာမွ မုန္တိုင္းေၾကာင့္ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံတြင္ မိုးပိုလာဦးမည္လား

  • mmweather.ygn

    This weekend, Typhoon NANMADOL is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with TS TALAS (15W) located to the NNW of Guam. If this scenario happens, it will continue to induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing scattered to occasional rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas. (update 009)
    CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu August 25 2011
    Location of Eye: 16.5º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 279 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 2: 327 km North of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 3: 342 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 4: 360 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 5: 440 km NE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
    Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
    Towards: Cagayan-Batanes Area
    24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
    Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
    Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
    Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
    Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Thu Aug 25

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